ALLO 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-13 21:37 CST · 捉妖器
0.39613
+9.0% 24h
量 $35.9M
见顶·收割初期
见顶试空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 06/30 | 0.28188 | 0.29104 | 0.25035 | 0.25162 | -10.7% | 16.3% | 74,681K | 中阴 |
| 07/01 | 0.25161 | 0.26952 | 0.22552 | 0.2264 | -10.0% | 19.5% | 90,936K | 中阴 |
| 07/02 | 0.2264 | 0.3674 | 0.22389 | 0.33996 | +50.2% | 64.1% | 433,398K | 大阳 |
| 07/03 | 0.33997 | 0.38768 | 0.32123 | 0.34992 | +2.9% | 20.7% | 463,465K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/04 | 0.34991 | 0.37395 | 0.32568 | 0.35098 | +0.3% | 14.8% | 153,691K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/05 | 0.35097 | 0.38379 | 0.34606 | 0.36481 | +3.9% | 10.9% | 86,883K | 长上影 |
| 07/06 | 0.36471 | 0.4293 | 0.33586 | 0.42216 | +15.8% | 27.8% | 167,281K | 中阳 |
| 07/07 | 0.42199 | 0.43947 | 0.39421 | 0.39802 | -5.7% | 11.5% | 167,323K | |
| 07/08 | 0.39804 | 0.42098 | 0.3643 | 0.41488 | +4.2% | 15.6% | 112,245K | 长下影 |
| 07/09 | 0.41488 | 0.45906 | 0.3914 | 0.43652 | +5.2% | 17.3% | 125,771K | ★新高 |
| 07/10 | 0.43652 | 0.445 | 0.39736 | 0.40333 | -7.6% | 12.0% | 60,596K | |
| 07/11 | 0.40333 | 0.42524 | 0.35712 | 0.36331 | -9.9% | 19.1% | 68,221K | |
| 07/12 | 0.36331 | 0.39468 | 0.33407 | 0.37319 | +2.7% | 18.1% | 141,679K | |
| 07/13 | 0.37319 | 0.40288 | 0.37135 | 0.39613 | +6.1% | 8.5% | 55,812K | |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/14 | $21.2M | |
| 06/15 | $21.7M | +2.5% |
| 06/16 | $21.1M | -2.7% |
| 06/17 | $20.6M | -2.6% |
| 06/18 | $20.1M | -2.5% |
| 06/19 | $21.4M | +6.7% |
| 06/20 | $21.5M | +0.6% |
| 06/21 | $21.7M | +0.6% |
| 06/22 | $21.3M | -1.7% |
| 06/23 | $23.2M | +9.0% |
| 06/24 | $22.6M | -2.3% |
| 06/25 | $21.4M | -5.4% |
| 06/26 | $20.6M | -3.8% |
| 06/27 | $17.3M | -16.1% |
| 06/28 | $19.5M | +12.7% |
| 06/29 | $18.6M | -4.7% |
| 06/30 | $17.9M | -3.8% |
| 07/01 | $15.3M | -14.2% |
| 07/02 | $13.7M | -10.9% |
| 07/03 | $20.8M | +52.2% |
| 07/04 | $20.9M | +0.4% |
| 07/05 | $20.4M | -2.2% |
| 07/06 | $21.1M | +3.1% |
| 07/07 | $23.7M | +12.7% |
| 07/08 | $21.2M | -10.6% |
| 07/09 | $21.6M | +2.1% |
| 07/10 | $23.7M | +9.5% |
| 07/11 | $21.2M | -10.6% |
| 07/12 | $19.3M | -9.0% |
| 07/13 | $20.1M | +4.4% |
- 当前OI $20.1M,占近30日峰值的85%
- 近7天OI变化-15%
- 最近1日OI变化+4%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 75 | 63 | 136 | 214 | 0.361873 | 0.368831 |
| 07/12 10:52 | 空 | 79 | 63 | 163 | 208 | 0.357807 | 0.368849 |
| 07/12 12:37 | 多 | 80 | 66 | 186 | 204 | 0.358884 | 0.368037 |
| 07/12 14:37 | 空 | 79 | 67 | 171 | 220 | 0.359362 | 0.363229 |
| 07/12 15:56 | 空 | 79 | 67 | 186 | 209 | 0.359721 | 0.363274 |
| 07/12 18:06 | 空 | 72 | 74 | 178 | 226 | 0.356462 | 0.360082 |
| 07/12 20:06 | 多 | 63 | 80 | 174 | 224 | 0.358359 | 0.359279 |
| 07/12 22:07 | 空 | 58 | 83 | 179 | 220 | 0.35781 | 0.357022 |
| 07/13 00:06 | 多 | 70 | 71 | 199 | 196 | 0.357725 | 0.357252 |
| 07/13 02:06 | 多 | 68 | 78 | 197 | 204 | 0.356388 | 0.356161 |
| 07/13 04:37 | 空 | 65 | 82 | 189 | 220 | 0.359089 | 0.35954 |
| 07/13 06:36 | 空 | 56 | 91 | 191 | 218 | 0.364076 | 0.366982 |
| 07/13 08:37 | 空 | 77 | 84 | 236 | 212 | 0.372719 | 0.365519 |
| 07/13 11:37 | 多 | 76 | 81 | 233 | 205 | 0.378159 | 0.376777 |
| 07/13 13:37 | 多 | 89 | 72 | 253 | 188 | 0.382292 | 0.384823 |
- 数据跨度29小时(113个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 75→89(+14)
- 空头巨鲸 63→72(+9)
- 多头交易员 136→253(+117)
- 空头交易员 214→188(-26)
- 多头成本 0.3619→0.3823(+5.6%)
- 空头成本 0.3688→0.3848(+4.3%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +3.6%
- 空头浮盈亏 -2.9%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/10 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/10 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/10 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0030% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段见顶·收割初期
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决SHORT · 见顶试空
周期第1轮 · 10.77×
垂直爆发已疯 (204%)
OI$20.1M (峰值85%)
距本轮峰值29.3% · 35天
价格可操纵度26%
深盘锚定74%
类比≈TAG 见顶前36天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升11倍(垂直爆发204%),见顶后35天已崩29%,现价仍是最初起点的7.6倍
- 距本轮峰值已29%,见顶后35天(第1轮,10.8×)
- OI停止创新高(占峰值85%)
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.31M,占70%)
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 1个看跌
场景推演
确认见顶·主跌开始
OI持续下降+多头爆仓加速 → 加仓做空
假见顶·再创新高
OI重新上行+费率再转负 → 割裂止损认错