JCT 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-13 21:34 CST · 捉妖器
0.004382
+32.9% 24h
量 $42.4M
主跌·收网
平空/勿追空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 06/30 | 0.00465 | 0.00491 | 0.00446 | 0.004508 | -3.1% | 10.1% | 652,169K | 长上影 |
| 07/01 | 0.004509 | 0.00468 | 0.004083 | 0.0043 | -4.6% | 14.6% | 849,562K | |
| 07/02 | 0.0043 | 0.004675 | 0.004214 | 0.004539 | +5.6% | 10.9% | 644,435K | |
| 07/03 | 0.00454 | 0.00554 | 0.00402 | 0.0042 | -7.5% | 37.8% | 1,734,514K | 长上影 ★新高 |
| 07/04 | 0.004199 | 0.004364 | 0.003153 | 0.003361 | -20.0% | 38.4% | 2,515,050K | 中阴 |
| 07/05 | 0.003362 | 0.003911 | 0.003251 | 0.003689 | +9.7% | 20.3% | 2,032,978K | |
| 07/06 | 0.00369 | 0.003746 | 0.0031 | 0.003296 | -10.7% | 20.8% | 1,159,987K | 中阴 |
| 07/07 | 0.003293 | 0.003487 | 0.003191 | 0.003273 | -0.6% | 9.3% | 656,456K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/08 | 0.003274 | 0.003516 | 0.003182 | 0.003294 | +0.6% | 10.5% | 766,430K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.003295 | 0.003516 | 0.003255 | 0.003461 | +5.0% | 8.0% | 496,012K | |
| 07/10 | 0.003461 | 0.003834 | 0.003389 | 0.003521 | +1.7% | 13.1% | 863,920K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/11 | 0.003521 | 0.003591 | 0.003283 | 0.003341 | -5.1% | 9.4% | 470,106K | |
| 07/12 | 0.00334 | 0.003768 | 0.003185 | 0.003591 | +7.5% | 18.3% | 851,032K | |
| 07/13 | 0.003589 | 0.004486 | 0.003543 | 0.004382 | +22.1% | 26.6% | 9,817,050K | 放量 大阳 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/14 | $13.8M | |
| 06/15 | $12.5M | -9.0% |
| 06/16 | $13.3M | +6.1% |
| 06/17 | $12.5M | -6.1% |
| 06/18 | $12.0M | -3.3% |
| 06/19 | $11.6M | -4.1% |
| 06/20 | $10.9M | -5.8% |
| 06/21 | $10.3M | -5.5% |
| 06/22 | $11.6M | +13.2% |
| 06/23 | $11.2M | -3.8% |
| 06/24 | $11.3M | +0.7% |
| 06/25 | $9.1M | -19.1% |
| 06/26 | $8.7M | -4.1% |
| 06/27 | $9.0M | +3.0% |
| 06/28 | $8.8M | -2.4% |
| 06/29 | $11.9M | +35.0% |
| 06/30 | $9.7M | -18.0% |
| 07/01 | $9.3M | -4.5% |
| 07/02 | $8.9M | -4.6% |
| 07/03 | $9.3M | +4.8% |
| 07/04 | $8.8M | -5.8% |
| 07/05 | $7.3M | -16.1% |
| 07/06 | $8.0M | +9.1% |
| 07/07 | $7.1M | -11.6% |
| 07/08 | $7.0M | -1.5% |
| 07/09 | $7.0M | +0.9% |
| 07/10 | $7.5M | +5.9% |
| 07/11 | $7.6M | +2.5% |
| 07/12 | $7.3M | -5.1% |
| 07/13 | $7.7M | +6.2% |
- 当前OI $7.7M,占近30日峰值的56%
- 近7天OI变化+9%
- 最近1日OI变化+6%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速上涨+43%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 29 | 28 | 75 | 69 | 0.00336563 | 0.00344099 |
| 07/12 10:36 | 多 | 34 | 26 | 75 | 73 | 0.00334589 | 0.00342908 |
| 07/12 12:22 | 多 | 35 | 24 | 77 | 69 | 0.00331872 | 0.00337732 |
| 07/12 14:22 | 多 | 32 | 26 | 75 | 73 | 0.00333766 | 0.00334178 |
| 07/12 15:51 | 多 | 32 | 27 | 80 | 68 | 0.00331844 | 0.00332638 |
| 07/12 17:37 | 多 | 28 | 33 | 75 | 76 | 0.00333837 | 0.00336778 |
| 07/12 19:52 | 多 | 32 | 30 | 80 | 75 | 0.00333168 | 0.00336907 |
| 07/12 21:52 | 多 | 30 | 32 | 78 | 80 | 0.00334571 | 0.00340197 |
| 07/12 23:52 | 空 | 26 | 42 | 75 | 97 | 0.00333053 | 0.00353194 |
| 07/13 01:51 | 空 | 34 | 38 | 81 | 103 | 0.00349054 | 0.00362729 |
| 07/13 04:06 | 空 | 40 | 41 | 105 | 129 | 0.00377308 | 0.00370392 |
| 07/13 06:22 | 空 | 37 | 44 | 126 | 155 | 0.00394509 | 0.00385152 |
| 07/13 08:22 | 空 | 43 | 46 | 161 | 177 | 0.00402465 | 0.00392521 |
| 07/13 11:21 | 多 | 53 | 43 | 178 | 196 | 0.00406321 | 0.00385129 |
| 07/13 13:22 | 多 | 56 | 44 | 189 | 208 | 0.00419219 | 0.00398722 |
- 数据跨度28小时(112个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 29→56(+27)
- 空头巨鲸 28→44(+16)
- 多头交易员 75→189(+114)
- 空头交易员 69→208(+139)
- 多头成本 0.003366→0.004192(+24.6%)
- 空头成本 0.003441→0.003987(+15.9%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +4.5%
- 空头浮盈亏 -9.9%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/10 12:00 | 0.0152% | |
| 07/10 16:00 | 0.0196% | |
| 07/10 20:00 | 0.0302% | |
| 07/11 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 08:00 | 0.0414% | |
| 07/11 12:00 | 0.0113% | |
| 07/11 16:00 | 0.0087% | |
| 07/11 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 08:00 | 0.0159% | |
| 07/12 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0613% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0412% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决COVER · 平空/勿追空
周期第1轮 · 7.35×
垂直爆发已疯 (71%)
OI$7.7M (峰值56%)
距本轮峰值47.0% · 30天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度90%
深盘锚定10%
类比≈VELVET 见顶后232天
30天腰斩概率0%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升7倍(垂直爆发71%),见顶后30天已崩47%,现价仍是最初起点的3.9倍
- 距本轮峰值47%,破位下行
- 费率已回中性/转正0.041%
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.15M,占52%)
- 近7日从低点反弹+34%,当心它再拉一轮(那时该平掉空单)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: OI在重建(逼空重启),不是纯反弹——手法反转,该平掉空单观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 2个看涨 vs 0个看跌
看涨信号
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速上涨+43%
- 阶段裁决:平空/勿追空
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场