MAGMA 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-13 21:35 CST · 捉妖器
0.35666
-17.5% 24h
量 $83.0M
余震
余震阴跌·持空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 06/30 | 0.45072 | 0.49026 | 0.41136 | 0.42701 | -5.3% | 19.2% | 20,974K | 缩量 长上影 |
| 07/01 | 0.42704 | 0.48177 | 0.3666 | 0.38035 | -10.9% | 31.4% | 35,975K | 中阴 |
| 07/02 | 0.38034 | 0.5859 | 0.37359 | 0.53358 | +40.3% | 56.8% | 119,858K | 大阳 |
| 07/03 | 0.53358 | 0.83581 | 0.48245 | 0.80379 | +50.6% | 73.2% | 374,106K | 放量 大阳 ★新高 |
| 07/04 | 0.80374 | 0.82555 | 0.50111 | 0.56978 | -29.1% | 64.7% | 230,402K | 大阴 |
| 07/05 | 0.56981 | 0.58479 | 0.44945 | 0.48496 | -14.9% | 30.1% | 92,148K | 中阴 |
| 07/06 | 0.48494 | 0.51113 | 0.434 | 0.44325 | -8.6% | 17.8% | 28,495K | 缩量 |
| 07/07 | 0.44322 | 0.44606 | 0.318 | 0.35952 | -18.9% | 40.3% | 77,514K | 中阴 |
| 07/08 | 0.35951 | 0.41287 | 0.311 | 0.36044 | +0.3% | 32.8% | 58,619K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.36043 | 0.44567 | 0.3508 | 0.44537 | +23.6% | 27.0% | 48,519K | 大阳 |
| 07/10 | 0.44518 | 0.44999 | 0.38188 | 0.41759 | -6.2% | 17.8% | 28,854K | 缩量 长下影 |
| 07/11 | 0.41756 | 0.42759 | 0.36 | 0.39205 | -6.1% | 18.8% | 19,393K | 缩量 |
| 07/12 | 0.39205 | 0.52985 | 0.30809 | 0.32193 | -17.9% | 72.0% | 164,882K | 中阴 长上影 |
| 07/13 | 0.32194 | 0.37765 | 0.2924 | 0.35666 | +10.8% | 29.2% | 62,337K | 中阳 |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/14 | $6.8M | |
| 06/15 | $6.3M | -6.7% |
| 06/16 | $7.9M | +24.8% |
| 06/17 | $7.4M | -6.6% |
| 06/18 | $10.9M | +48.2% |
| 06/19 | $8.0M | -26.8% |
| 06/20 | $8.0M | -0.2% |
| 06/21 | $7.8M | -2.4% |
| 06/22 | $10.0M | +27.9% |
| 06/23 | $8.0M | -19.7% |
| 06/24 | $7.3M | -8.9% |
| 06/25 | $7.1M | -1.9% |
| 06/26 | $7.3M | +2.3% |
| 06/27 | $11.8M | +61.8% |
| 06/28 | $9.2M | -21.8% |
| 06/29 | $8.1M | -12.9% |
| 06/30 | $8.1M | +0.5% |
| 07/01 | $7.6M | -6.5% |
| 07/02 | $6.5M | -14.5% |
| 07/03 | $10.5M | +63.0% |
| 07/04 | $23.4M | +122.0% |
| 07/05 | $13.0M | -44.3% |
| 07/06 | $10.1M | -22.5% |
| 07/07 | $8.6M | -14.6% |
| 07/08 | $6.7M | -23.0% |
| 07/09 | $6.2M | -7.5% |
| 07/10 | $7.6M | +23.8% |
| 07/11 | $6.9M | -9.9% |
| 07/12 | $6.4M | -6.7% |
| 07/13 | $5.8M | -8.9% |
- 当前OI $5.8M,占近30日峰值的25%
- 近7天OI变化-33%
- OI快速萎缩——仓位在撤离/爆仓
- 最近1日OI变化-9%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-28%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 45 | 38 | 124 | 107 | 0.393621 | 0.389565 |
| 07/12 10:36 | 多 | 39 | 38 | 85 | 119 | 0.396297 | 0.410108 |
| 07/12 12:22 | 多 | 38 | 38 | 88 | 114 | 0.396015 | 0.40594 |
| 07/12 14:22 | 多 | 43 | 39 | 101 | 121 | 0.421723 | 0.449112 |
| 07/12 15:51 | 多 | 41 | 46 | 108 | 148 | 0.447835 | 0.475387 |
| 07/12 17:37 | 空 | 54 | 48 | 181 | 186 | 0.428133 | 0.449142 |
| 07/12 19:52 | 空 | 44 | 58 | 178 | 210 | 0.419899 | 0.492642 |
| 07/12 21:52 | 空 | 48 | 53 | 190 | 202 | 0.377756 | 0.47592 |
| 07/12 23:52 | 空 | 47 | 60 | 194 | 207 | 0.3466 | 0.482028 |
| 07/13 01:51 | 空 | 49 | 58 | 198 | 212 | 0.427259 | 0.505028 |
| 07/13 04:06 | 空 | 47 | 61 | 204 | 211 | 0.344823 | 0.528719 |
| 07/13 06:22 | 空 | 55 | 53 | 212 | 202 | 0.360836 | 0.510286 |
| 07/13 08:22 | 空 | 52 | 63 | 229 | 219 | 0.311021 | 0.528237 |
| 07/13 11:21 | 空 | 58 | 58 | 225 | 225 | 0.31058 | 0.508303 |
| 07/13 13:22 | 空 | 62 | 55 | 226 | 225 | 0.38419 | 0.490094 |
- 数据跨度28小时(112个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 45→62(+17)
- 空头巨鲸 38→55(+17)
- 多头交易员 124→226(+102)
- 空头交易员 107→225(+118)
- 多头成本 0.3936→0.3842(-2.4%)
- 空头成本 0.3896→0.4901(+25.8%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -7.2%
- 空头浮盈亏 +27.2%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/10 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/10 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/10 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 04:00 | 0.0108% | |
| 07/11 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 16:00 | 0.0062% | |
| 07/11 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 08:00 | 0.0080% | |
| 07/12 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0164% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0553% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决SHORT · 余震阴跌·持空
周期第1轮 · 10.03×
垂直爆发已疯 (88%)
OI$5.8M (峰值25%)
距本轮峰值57.4% · 10天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈UB 见顶前30天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升10倍(垂直爆发88%),见顶后10天已崩57%,现价仍是最初起点的4.3倍
- 距本轮峰值57%,见顶后10天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.05M,占80%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 2个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- OI快速萎缩——仓位在撤离/爆仓
- 阶段裁决:余震阴跌·持空
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空