SYN 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-13 21:42 CST · 捉妖器
0.2672
-16.0% 24h
量 $27.2M
余震
余震阴跌·持空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 06/30 | 0.51146 | 0.72495 | 0.47748 | 0.56297 | +10.1% | 51.8% | 915,548K | 放量 中阳 长上影 ★新高 |
| 07/01 | 0.56288 | 0.5849 | 0.42802 | 0.52839 | -6.1% | 36.7% | 427,106K | 长下影 |
| 07/02 | 0.52831 | 0.62682 | 0.48224 | 0.51952 | -1.7% | 30.0% | 316,143K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/03 | 0.51937 | 0.55176 | 0.44196 | 0.44583 | -14.2% | 24.8% | 196,141K | 中阴 |
| 07/04 | 0.44573 | 0.51558 | 0.33239 | 0.359 | -19.5% | 55.1% | 244,558K | 中阴 |
| 07/05 | 0.35908 | 0.445 | 0.30621 | 0.39545 | +10.1% | 45.3% | 331,833K | 中阳 |
| 07/06 | 0.39549 | 0.48 | 0.36201 | 0.37517 | -5.1% | 32.6% | 343,328K | 长上影 |
| 07/07 | 0.37516 | 0.38793 | 0.3324 | 0.3695 | -1.5% | 16.7% | 131,442K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/08 | 0.3692 | 0.4356 | 0.34467 | 0.3522 | -4.6% | 26.4% | 189,809K | 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.3524 | 0.386 | 0.3378 | 0.376 | +6.7% | 14.3% | 88,213K | |
| 07/10 | 0.376 | 0.3869 | 0.2777 | 0.3048 | -18.9% | 39.3% | 145,792K | 中阴 |
| 07/11 | 0.3048 | 0.315 | 0.2867 | 0.2935 | -3.7% | 9.9% | 90,481K | |
| 07/12 | 0.2934 | 0.3322 | 0.2914 | 0.3194 | +8.9% | 14.0% | 88,944K | |
| 07/13 | 0.3196 | 0.3245 | 0.2656 | 0.2672 | -16.4% | 22.2% | 60,281K | 缩量 中阴 |
- 近3日均量萎缩至之前的19%(缩量)
- 阴线吞噬前日阳线(看跌反转)
- 14日总跌幅-48%(持续下跌)
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/14 | $1.4M | |
| 06/15 | $1.3M | -6.7% |
| 06/16 | $1.8M | +37.0% |
| 06/17 | $1.6M | -11.5% |
| 06/18 | $4.6M | +191.8% |
| 06/19 | $12.2M | +166.4% |
| 06/20 | $11.3M | -7.8% |
| 06/21 | $8.9M | -20.9% |
| 06/22 | $12.1M | +35.3% |
| 06/23 | $25.6M | +112.5% |
| 06/24 | $22.0M | -14.2% |
| 06/25 | $28.9M | +31.5% |
| 06/26 | $20.1M | -30.4% |
| 06/27 | $18.7M | -6.9% |
| 06/28 | $15.3M | -18.4% |
| 06/29 | $19.0M | +24.1% |
| 06/30 | $29.2M | +53.8% |
| 07/01 | $29.8M | +2.3% |
| 07/02 | $28.0M | -6.2% |
| 07/03 | $27.1M | -3.1% |
| 07/04 | $23.7M | -12.5% |
| 07/05 | $19.3M | -18.8% |
| 07/06 | $20.5M | +6.1% |
| 07/07 | $19.7M | -3.5% |
| 07/08 | $20.1M | +1.8% |
| 07/09 | $18.5M | -7.8% |
| 07/10 | $20.3M | +9.6% |
| 07/11 | $16.6M | -18.3% |
| 07/12 | $16.2M | -2.4% |
| 07/13 | $16.8M | +3.8% |
- 当前OI $16.8M,占近30日峰值的56%
- 近7天OI变化-15%
- 最近1日OI变化+4%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-12%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 50 | 87 | 164 | 205 | 0.308955 | 0.306827 |
| 07/12 10:52 | 多 | 65 | 72 | 171 | 197 | 0.311393 | 0.310165 |
| 07/12 12:37 | 多 | 69 | 67 | 187 | 181 | 0.310623 | 0.308314 |
| 07/12 14:37 | 多 | 74 | 59 | 196 | 169 | 0.315979 | 0.312007 |
| 07/12 15:56 | 空 | 55 | 80 | 173 | 194 | 0.312736 | 0.315587 |
| 07/12 18:06 | 空 | 68 | 66 | 180 | 186 | 0.315946 | 0.314638 |
| 07/12 20:06 | 空 | 64 | 73 | 182 | 184 | 0.316615 | 0.312662 |
| 07/12 22:07 | 多 | 75 | 62 | 197 | 171 | 0.317957 | 0.314687 |
| 07/13 00:06 | 多 | 77 | 55 | 199 | 160 | 0.3174 | 0.315829 |
| 07/13 02:06 | 空 | 70 | 61 | 181 | 172 | 0.314322 | 0.316143 |
| 07/13 04:37 | 多 | 89 | 47 | 197 | 160 | 0.317626 | 0.320328 |
| 07/13 06:36 | 多 | 98 | 37 | 210 | 129 | 0.315772 | 0.318555 |
| 07/13 08:37 | 多 | 85 | 58 | 200 | 146 | 0.31557 | 0.317207 |
| 07/13 11:37 | 多 | 86 | 64 | 197 | 170 | 0.310678 | 0.312939 |
| 07/13 13:37 | 多 | 90 | 60 | 202 | 174 | 0.30778 | 0.315041 |
- 数据跨度29小时(113个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 50→90(+40)
- 空头巨鲸 87→60(-27)
- 巨鲸转向多头——聪明钱看多
- 多头交易员 164→202(+38)
- 空头交易员 205→174(-31)
- 多头成本 0.309→0.3078(-0.4%)
- 空头成本 0.3068→0.315(+2.7%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -13.2%
- 空头浮盈亏 +15.2%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/10 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/10 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/10 20:00 | -0.0006% | |
| 07/11 00:00 | 0.0001% | |
| 07/11 04:00 | -0.0059% | |
| 07/11 08:00 | 0.0016% | |
| 07/11 12:00 | 0.0014% | |
| 07/11 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/11 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 08:00 | 0.0045% | |
| 07/12 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0035% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0034% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
置信度medium
空单目标仓位30%
机会裁决SHORT · 余震阴跌·持空
周期第3轮 · 25.64×
垂直爆发已疯 (106%)
OI$16.8M (峰值56%)
距本轮峰值63.2% · 13天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度23%
深盘锚定77%
类比≈ALCH 见顶前29天
30天腰斩概率50%
观察到的迹象
- 距本轮峰值63%,见顶后13天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.22M,占88%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 只留底仓 ≤30%,暴力反弹处减仓,勿裸持
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 3个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 近3日均量萎缩至之前的19%(缩量)
- 阴线吞噬前日阳线(看跌反转)
- 阶段裁决:余震阴跌·持空
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空